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Unanticipated money and the political business cycle
Richards critiques earlier studies that rely on policy reaction functions, arguing they fail to account for time-varying parameters and the distinction between anticipated and unanticipated policy—key in a rational expectations framework where only surprises affect real variables. Using rolling regressions and ARIMA models, Richards generates money growth forecast errors to test if deviations from expected policy align with electoral timing. The results show mixed evidence: while positive forecast errors (expansionary surprises) were common in election years during 1960–1974, this pattern reversed post-1975, with negative errors (contractionary surprises) emerging. Richards suggests this shift may reflect increased public awareness of political manipulation, influenced by the rise of rational expectations theory and Federal Reserve Chair Paul Volcker’s anti-inflation stance.
Ketersediaan
| Call Number | Location | Available |
|---|---|---|
| JMCB1804 | PSB lt.dasar - Pascasarjana | 1 |
| Penerbit | Ohio: Ohio State University Press 1986 |
|---|---|
| Edisi | Vol. 18, No. 4, Nov., 1986 |
| Subjek | Monetary policy Economic stabilization political business cycle unanticipated money growth federal reserve policy reaction functions |
| ISBN/ISSN | 00222879 |
| Klasifikasi | NONE |
| Deskripsi Fisik | 11 p. |
| Info Detail Spesifik | Journal of Money, Credit and Banking |
| Other Version/Related | Tidak tersedia versi lain |
| Lampiran Berkas |