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Stickier Priors: The Effects of Nonanalytic versus Analytic Thinking in New Product Forecasting
The author investigates scenario generation and analogical reasoning as potential sources of bias in new product forecasting. In a series of studies, scenarios and analogies are shown to have persistent effects on judgment, despite subsequent use of corrective analytic techniques (e.g., counterfactual reasoning, counterscenarios, counteranalogies, decomposition, accountability). These findings demonstrate the robustness of nonanalytic processes on judgment and the need to be aware of their seductive effects.
Ketersediaan
| Call Number | Location | Available |
|---|---|---|
| JM4002 | PSB lt.dasar - Pascasarjana | 1 |
| Penerbit | Chicago, IL: American Marketing Association 2003 |
|---|---|
| Edisi | Vol. 40, No. 1 (Feb., 2003), pp. 65-79 |
| Subjek | Accounting research Marketing product management effect |
| ISBN/ISSN | 0022-2437 |
| Klasifikasi | NONE |
| Deskripsi Fisik | 15 p. |
| Info Detail Spesifik | Journal of Marketing |
| Other Version/Related | Tidak tersedia versi lain |
| Lampiran Berkas |