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Nasty Countries and huge trade deals : The effect of trump's tweets on bilateral trade flows with major US trading partner
Donald Trump was elected into US presidential office in November 2016 and his protective approach on international economics blatantly differs with actions taken by politicians before him. Those policies and sentiments are always expressed via his twitter account and received various responses from citizens and governments alike. This research aimed to find out if the US diplomatic hostility towards its partners on social media will have a direct impact on their bilateral trade flows because of diplomatic retaliation. Using monthly import and export data between the US and 10 major trading partners from June 2015 until March 2018, their respective Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) Index, and tweets analysed with VADER sentiment analysis, we estimate an ARDL model of Trump?s twitter sentiments and its effect on trade. We found out that tweets and trade are not causally linked, yet in most cases they are cointegrated in the short and long run. Through ARDL, we can infer that tweets took around 4 months to take effect and they are only significant in several countries.Ada tabel
Ketersediaan
| Call Number | Location | Available |
|---|---|---|
| 11183 | PSB lt.2 - Karya Akhir | 1 |
| Penerbit | Depok: Program Studi Ilmu Ekonomi Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Indonesia 2018 |
|---|---|
| Edisi | - |
| Subjek | International trade International economics Bilateral trade Trading partner |
| ISBN/ISSN | - |
| Klasifikasi | - |
| Deskripsi Fisik | viii, 37 p. : il. ; 30 cm |
| Info Detail Spesifik | - |
| Other Version/Related | Tidak tersedia versi lain |
| Lampiran Berkas | Tidak Ada Data |