Text
Economic growth 2nd ed
To think about the importance of economic growth, we begin by assessing the long-term performance of the U.S. economy. The real per capita gross domestic product (GDP) in the United States grew by a factor of 10 from $3340 in 1870 to $33,330 in 2000, all measured in 1996 dollars. This increase in per capita GDP corresponds to a growth rate of 1.8 percent per year. This performance gave the United States the second-highest level of per capita GDP in the world in 2000 (after Luxembourg, a country with a population of only about 400,000).1 To appreciate the consequences of apparently small differentials in growth rates when compounded over long periods of time, we can calculate where the United States would have been in 2000 if it had grown since 1870 at 0.8 percent per year, one percentage point per year below its actual rate. A growth rate of 0.8 percent per year is close to the rate experienced in the long run?from 1900 to 1987?by India (0.64 percent per year), Pakistan (0.88 percent per year), and the Philippines (0.86 percent per year). If the United States had begun in 1870 at a real per capita GDP of $3340 and had then grown at 0.8 percent per year over the next 130 years, its per capita GDP in 2000 would have been $9450, only 2.8 times the value in 1870 and 28 percent of the actual value in 2000 of $33,330. Then, instead of ranking second in the world in 2000, the United States would have ranked 45th out of 150 countries with data. To put it another way, if the growth rate had been lower by just 1 percentage point per year, the U.S. per capita GDP in 2000 would have been close to that in Mexico and Poland. Suppose, alternatively, that the U.S. real per capita GDP had grown since 1870 at 2.8 percent per year, 1 percentage point per year greater than the actual value. This higher growth rate is close to those experienced in the long run by Japan (2.95 percent per year from 1890 to 1990) and Taiwan (2.75 percent per year from 1900 to 1987). If the United States had still begun in 1870 at a per capita GDP of $3340 and had then grown at 2.8 percent per year over the next 130 years, its per capita GDP in 2000 would have been $127,000? 38 times the value in 1870 and 3.8 times the actual value in 2000 of $33,330. A per capita GDP of $127,000 is well outside the historical experience of any country and may, in fact, be infeasible (although people in 1870 probably would have thought the same about $33,330). We can say, however, that a continuation of the long-term U.S. growth rate of 1.8 percent per year implies that the United States will not attain a per capita GDP of $127,000 until 2074. 1. The long-term data on GDP come from Maddison (1991) and are discussed in chapter 12.
Ketersediaan
| Call Number | Location | Available |
|---|---|---|
| Tan 338. 900 151 Bar e | PSB lt.dasar - Pascasarjana | 4 |
| Penerbit | London The MIT Press., 2004 |
|---|---|
| Edisi | - |
| Subjek | Ecenomic development Mathematic model |
| ISBN/ISSN | 9780262025539 |
| Klasifikasi | NONE |
| Deskripsi Fisik | xii, 654p; chart, tables, graphics, appendix, 12cm |
| Info Detail Spesifik | - |
| Other Version/Related | Tidak tersedia versi lain |
| Lampiran Berkas | Tidak Ada Data |