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Predictive systems: living with imperfect predictors

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We develop a framework for estimating expected returns - a predictive system - that allows predictors to be imperfectly correlated with the conditional expected return. When predictors are imperfect, the estimated expected return depends on past returns in a manner that hinges on the correlation between unexpected returns and innovations in expected returns. We find empirically that prior beliefs about this correlation, which is most likely negative, substantially affect estimates of expected returns as well as various inferences about predictability, including assessments of a predictor's usefulness. Compared to standard predictive regressions, predictive systems deliver different expected returns with higher estimated precision..Printed journal

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Ketersediaan

Call Number	Location	Available
	PSB lt.dasar - Pascasarjana	1

Penerbit	The American Finance Association.,
Edisi	-
Subjek	Comparative analysis Innovations studies Estimating techniques Expected returns
ISBN/ISSN	221082
Klasifikasi	-
Deskripsi Fisik	-
Info Detail Spesifik	-
Other Version/Related	Tidak tersedia versi lain
Lampiran Berkas	Tidak Ada Data