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Estimating probabilities of recession in real time using GDP and CDI
This work estimates Markov switching models on real-time data and shows that the growth rate of gross domestic income (GDI), deflated by the gross domestic product (GDP) deflator, has done a better job recognizing the start of recessions than has the growth rate of real GDP. This result suggests that placing an increased focus on GDI may be useful in assessing the current state of the economy. In addition, the paper shows that the definition of a low-growth phase in the Markov switching models changed considerably from 1978 to 2005. The models increasingly came to define this phase as an extended period of around zero rather than negative growth, diverging somewhat from the traditional definition of a recession..Printed journal
Ketersediaan
| Call Number | Location | Available |
|---|---|---|
| JMCB4401 | PSB lt.dasar - Pascasarjana | 1 |
| Penerbit | : The Ohio State University |
|---|---|
| Edisi | - |
| Subjek | Economic models Gross domestic product Income Recessions GDP studies Markov analysis |
| ISBN/ISSN | 222879 |
| Klasifikasi | - |
| Deskripsi Fisik | - |
| Info Detail Spesifik | - |
| Other Version/Related | Tidak tersedia versi lain |
| Lampiran Berkas | Tidak Ada Data |