A Growing Luminosity: The Impact of Toll Road Infrastructure on Rural Economy in Indonesia

Deskripsi

Indonesia has experienced a significant increase in toll road development since 2014. This paper investigates the impact of toll road infrastructure on rural level in Sumatera and Java Islands by exploiting the Night Time Light (NTL) data from 2012 to 2019 as a proxy for economic activities at the village level. We employ a difference-in¬-difference (DiD) model and perform the anticipation effects method to accommodate the pre-treatment effects. Our findings suggest that: (1) Toll Road infrastructure significantly promotes rural economic growth with regions in Java growing faster than in Sumatra; (2) The impacts are heterogenous between regions in terms of population, location, and leading sectors. Villages relatively close to the district’s capital and less-populated experience significant growth, while villages farther and high-populated do not. Villages with manufacture-leading industries benefit more than regions dependent on other sectors; (3) There is evidence of anticipation effects before the opening of toll roads, especially in Java Island.