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What Drives Variation in the U.S. Debt-to-Output Ratio? The Dogs that Did not Bark
A higher U.S. government debt-to-output (D-O) ratio does not forecast higher surpluses or lower returns on Treasurys in the future. Neither future cash flows nor discount rates account for the variation in the current D-O ratio. The market valuation of Treasurys is surprisingly insensitive to macro fundamentals. Instead, the future D-O ratio accounts for most of the variation because the D-O ratio is highly persistent. Systematic surplus forecast errors may help account for these findings. Since the start of the Global Financial Crisis, surplus projections have anticipated a large fiscal correction that failed to materialize.
Ketersediaan
| Call Number | Location | Available |
|---|---|---|
| PSB lt.2 - Karya Akhir (Koleksi Majalah) | 1 |
| Penerbit | USA: The American Finance Association 2024 |
|---|---|
| Edisi | Volume 79, Issue 4, August 2024, Pages 2603-2665 |
| Subjek | Market valuation Fiscal sustainability Debt-to-output Treasurys |
| ISBN/ISSN | 1540-6261 |
| Klasifikasi | NONE |
| Deskripsi Fisik | ill, chart, table, grafik, 508 hal, 20 cm |
| Info Detail Spesifik | The Journal of Finance |
| Other Version/Related | Tidak tersedia versi lain |
| Lampiran Berkas |