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Interlinkage Of Macroeconomic Uncertainty And Macroeconomic Performance: Evidence From ASEAN-5 Countries Panel VAR

This paper examines the interrelationship between inflation, inflation uncertainty, growth, and growth uncertainty. We find a negative effect of output uncertainty on output growth and a positive effect of output growth on output uncertainty. Inflation uncertainty has a negative effect on the inflation rate, suggesting that there is a stabilizing motive during high periods of high inflation, where the policy lowers inflation uncertainty to minimize the economic welfare costs of deflationary actions. However, inflation has a positive effect on inflation uncertainty suggesting that agents
may devote more resources to inflation forecasting in a rising inflation environment, which reduces uncertainty. We also find a negative relation between inflation and growth, suggesting that a moderate trend of growth and inflation should be maintained to achieve desirable effects on the economy.

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