The growth of Indonesian economy on Quarter II, 2016 increased with a well-maintained financial system and macroeconomic stability. Though the growth was not uniform across sectors, the aggregate growth has increased during this quarter, supported by domestic demand, fiscal stimulus, along with monetary policy ease. On the other hand, the macroeconomic stability was well preserved as reflected …
The swings of global trade in recent decades have been resulted from the global economic crisis and unfavorable condition of global situation. Deterioration of private demand -- as a result of economic crisis and increase of unemployment ? has been the main reason of worsening global trade. This condition has, of course, affected economic performance of countries through trade channels. Further…
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This study aims to analyse the challenges to the dual banking system during times of macroeconomic fluctuation. Using the default probability mapping method and macroeconomic stress testing, we measure the stability of the financial system by credit calculation. In addition, by using the stress test method, we are able to find information regarding the characteristics of the financial system …
Includes bibliographies and index
Understanding how well the fuel market (or its prices) are linked to a country’s macroeconomy has both fiscal and monetary policy coordination implications. This note attempts to provide an understanding of how shocks from the fuel market impact the macroeconomy and vice versa. Our results are novel: we show that Fiji’s macroeconomy only absorbs a maximum of 31% of shocks from the system, i…
Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) represent a risk that can significantly affect the financial performance of banks. This study aims to examine the macroeconomic determinants of NPLs in the Indonesian banking industry from 2005Q1 to 2019Q4. It adopts a novel approach, namely the nonlinear autoregressive distributed model and provides evidence that changes in macroeconomic conditions have an asymmetri…
This paper examines the interrelationship between inflation, inflation uncertainty, growth, and growth uncertainty. We find a negative effect of output uncertainty on output growth and a positive effect of output growth on output uncertainty. Inflation uncertainty has a negative effect on the inflation rate, suggesting that there is a stabilizing motive during high periods of high inflation, wh…
We investigate the default probability of Indonesian banks using the copula approach and analyze the macro-financial factors that drive them. We use quarterly data comprised of 80 banks from 2005 to 2019. We find empirical evidence that Common Equity Tier 1 (CET 1) ratio, inefficiency ratio, and deposit ratio have negatively impacted the bank’s default probability. We also find that macroecon…
This paper attempts to investigate the impact of policy mix in dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic. We employ the New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework and the Del Negro et al. (2007) approach to estimate the model. We investigate the effectiveness of policy mix in Indonesia by taking into account real and financial linkages, as well as other market imperfections.…
In this study, we use a Markov-Switching Bayesian Vector AutoRegression model to investigate the episodic relationship between financial stress and the key macroeconomic variables in the case of Indonesia. We find different nature of relationships among Indonesia’s real sector variables (household consumption expenditure and consumer price index), financial sector variables (interbank money m…
Includes bibliographies and index
Includes bibliographies, index and tables
This successful text, now in its second edition, offers the most comprehensive overview of monetary economics and monetary policy currently available. It covers the microeconomic, macroeconomic and monetary policy components of the field. Major features of the new edition include: - Stylised facts on money demand and supply, and the relationships between monetary policy, inflation, output and …
Dornbusch, Fischer, and Startz's Macroeconomics relies on straightforward explanations by emphasizing concepts over technique, and fitting difficult material into a larger framework so students can see its relevance in the world. The authors explore state-of-the art research, while allowing for flexibility in how much to emphasize these topics. A balanced approach explains both the potential an…
Includes index
In Macroeconomics, Blanchard presents an integrated, global view of macroeconomics, enabling students to see the connections between goods markets, financial markets, and labor markets worldwide. Organized into two parts, the text contains a core section that focuses on short-, medium-, and long-run markets and two major extensions that offer more in-depth coverage of the issues at hand. From t…
Untuk mengatasi ketidakpastian pasar saham, investor harus memiliki pemahaman yang kuat mengenai naik turunnya fase bullish dan bearish. Hal ini terutama berlaku ketika melihat indeks LQ45 Indonesia, yang terdiri dari 45 saham paling likuid di Indonesia. Studi ini memprediksi arah pergerakan indeks harga saham LQ45 di masa depan dengan terlebih dahulu mencari tahu periode bearish dan bullish-ny…
We provide a simple model of investment by a firm funded with debt and equity and empirical evidence to demonstrate that, once we control for the debt overhang problem with credit spreads, asset volatility is an unambiguously positive signal for investment, while equity volatility sends a mixed signal: Elevated volatility raises the option value of equity and increases investment for financiall…
This address reviews macrofinance from the perspective of resilience. It argues for a shift in mindset, away from risk management toward resilience management. It proposes a new resilience measure, and contrasts micro- and macro-resilience. It also classifies macrofinance models in first- (log-linearized) and second-generation models, and links the important themes of macrofinance to resilience.