Immigration from abroad has increased dramatically since the 1960s, as workers from less developed countries have moved to the US in search of higher wages. One way immigration affects the economy is through the labor market. At the national level, immigration is widely believed to harm native workers with similar skills by reducing their wages or their probability of obtaining a job. Some nati…
Penelitian ini mengkaji mengenai bagaimana potensi dampak ekonomi dari praktik Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) pada padi, kopi, jagung, dan tebu di Indonesia dengan menggunakan pendekatan Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). Penelitian ini dilatar belakangi oleh perubahan iklim yang terjadi dan memberikan dampak negatif pada perekonomian Indonesia. Untuk beradaptasi perubahan iklim di sektor pertani…
Penelitian ini menyelidiki dampak ekonomi nasional dari pembangunan proyek Integrated Port Network (IPN) menggunakan model Interregional Input-Output (IRIO). Pelabuhan sangat penting bagi infrastruktur regional, merangsang aktivitas ekonomi, lapangan kerja, dan pertumbuhan. Penelitian ini menggunakan model IRIO untuk menganalisis pengganda ekonomi dan efek pembangunan pelabuhan di berbagai wila…
Penelitian ini menelaah hubungan antara lapangan kerja informal dan ketimpangan pendapatan di Indonesia. Selama satu dekade terakhir, sektor informal telah berkembang secara signifikan dan menjadi bagian yang sangat diperlukan dalam perekonomian dengan menawarkan kesempatan kepada individu yang belum memiliki pekerjaan. Dengan memanfaatkan data Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) dan Survei Angkatan Ke…
Indonesia masih sangat bergantung pada energi fosil yang berkontribusi pada peningkatan emisi karbon dan dampak lingkungan yang serius. Meskipun pemerintah telah berkomitmen untuk mencapai target nol emisi pada tahun 2060, namun pendanaan untuk mendukung transisi energi tetap menjadi tantangan besar. Sektor swasta, terutama lembaga keuangan, memainkan peran penting dalam mendukung proyek-proyek…
We ask how macroeconomic and financial variables respond to empirical measures of shocks to technology, labor supply, and monetary policy. These three shocks account for the preponderance of output, productivity, and price fluctuations. Only technology shocks have a permanent impact on economic activity. Labor inputs have little initial response to technology shocks. Monetary policy has a small…
This past summer a certain amount of optimism began to reemerge, with talk of green shoots and even a potential recovery as the stock market rebounded by 30% from its low in March. That optimism may be misplaced, however. Look at the graph below, which tracks the ratio of U.S. consumers' debt to their disposable income..Printed journal
We show that the composition of government spending influences the long-run behavior of the real exchange rate. We develop a two-sector small open-economy model in which an increase in government consumption is associated with real appreciation, while an increase in government investment may generate real depreciation. Our empirical work confirms that government consumption and government inves…
Structural vector autoregressions give conflicting results on the effects of technology shocks on hours. The results depend crucially on the assumed data generating process for hours per capita. We show that the standard measure of hours per capita and productivity have significant low-frequency movements that are the source of the conflicting results. Hodrick-Prescott (HP)-filtered hours per c…
In 1893, American historian Frederick Jackson Turner declared that a frontier isn't just a place; it's also the process of adaptation and change that shifting borders force on people and institutions. The young Wisconsin professor was describing the role that the frontier had played for three centuries in creating the American nation, but the Turner thesis applies to modern business, too. Over …
The recession hasn't so much put an end to a party as sobered it up, propelling some consumer trends forward while slowing, halting, or even reversing others in ways that will affect their trajectory in and after the recovery. Of the dozens of trends we follow, we've identified eight that we believe will be substantially affected by this recession. The trends include. 1. A demand for simplicity…
The Obama administration and the Federal Reserve authorities - along with their counterparts around the world - are doing their utmost to thaw the terrible credit freeze that took hold in the fall of 2008. That governments have had to take these steps is a sorry commentary on how badly the housing and derivatives bubbles deformed the economy and the global financial system. Although interventio…
Charts present the results of a survey regarding how the recession has affected the business community..Printed journal
The paper argues that many of the exaggerated claims that globalization has been an important factor in lowering inflation in recent years just do not hold up. Globalization does, however, have the potential to be stabilizing for individual economies and has been a key factor in promoting economic growth. The paper then examines four questions about the impact of globalization on the monetary t…
Despite the expectations of economists that the euro changeover would have no effect on prices, European consumers perceived the opposite. To shed some light on this puzzle, we develop a model of imperfect information in which cheaper goods experience higher price growth after the changeover. Retailers, aware of consumers' difficulties in adopting the new currency, use currency changeovers to i…
We study the effects of news about future total factor productivity (TFP) in a small open economy. We show that an open-economy version of the neoclassical model produces a recession in response to good news about future TFP. We propose an open-economy model that generates comovement in response to TFP news. The key elements of our model are a weak short-run wealth effect on the labor supply an…
Patents are supposed to provide incentives for inventors to invest in innovation and in the commercialization of their ideas. It is often argued that patents do this because they are a form of property, namely "intellectual property." Given the effectiveness of property rights, it might seem to follow that strong patent rights should also promote innovation and economic growth. This paper surve…
The combination of the gigantic American trade deficit and the price of oil at more than $125 per barrel has created an attendant pool of financial liquidity among oil exporters in the Gulf. The member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have adopted active investment and development strategies: They are investing heavily in large Western organizations as well as in emerging markets in…
Climate change could devastate the economies of vulnerable regions. By taking the lead in helping those areas adapt to global warming, firms can advance their interests while building goodwill in communities where they do business. .Printed Journal