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Integration of discrepant sales forecasts: the influence of plausibility inferences based on an evoked pange

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Sales forecasts serve as a foundation for marketing planning and are often based on several market research reports. Yet due to differences in methodologies, definitions, and assumptions by the data sources, these reports often present discrepant projections. This article explores how managers integrate discrepant projections to form a sales forecast and the bias that can result from using plausibility inferences based on an evoked sales range. Five experiments are described that show that when a second projection is 1. lower than a first projection, and 2. has a higher margin of error than the first projection, it receives more weight than it normatively should. However, the second projection receives the "normatively correct" amount of weight when it is higher than the first. Three experiments demonstrate this result in different settings and a fourth experiment rules out a conservatism explanation. The final experiment provides evidence for the proposed underlying mechanism of evoked ranges by demonstrating that provision of an explicit range can reverse the effect..Printed Journal

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Ketersediaan

Call Number	Location	Available
	PSB lt.dasar - Pascasarjana	1

Penerbit	American Marketing Association.,
Edisi	-
Subjek	Statistical analysis Sales forecasting Forecasting techniques studies Bias
ISBN/ISSN	222437
Klasifikasi	-
Deskripsi Fisik	-
Info Detail Spesifik	-
Other Version/Related	Tidak tersedia versi lain
Lampiran Berkas	Tidak Ada Data